Ukraine Crisis

Discussion in 'The Near Abroad' started by Morgoth, Aug 25, 2014.

  1. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    I have created this thread for the purposes of discussing the evolving situation in Ukraine, although a Crimean crisis thread does exist, in my opinion, the Crimean crisis is over and finished. Let me start by putting down some thoughts of what I think the latest rebel counter - offensives mean.

    The rebels have clearly been building up numbers and organisational capacity for many months now, it is clear that their decision to go on the offensive on the 24th of August was motivated primarily by one factor, the exhaustion of the operational reserves of the Ukrainian army. The 28th brigade, the last reserve of the Ukrainians was thrown into the foray during 20th - 24th of August, with this commitment, the rebels correctly perceived that in the event of a counter stroke, the Ukrainians would have no forces to reply with. How this offensive will evolve remains to be seen but there is growing evidence that the balance has tipped and the strategic initiative is passing to the rebels.
  2. Carlo

    Carlo Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    I am not following closely the events in Ukraine now, I read that the rebels tried to take Mariupol but were stopped in Novoazovsk, 50 km to the east. Anyway, the thing is: the rebels don't need to "liberate" territory, as it would go beyond their capabilities. All they need to do is to resist, preferably close to the Russian border (so they can receive all kind of support, intelligence, ammunition, food, medicines, evacuate injured soldiers and civilians, etc), and continue with the attrition war, making the central government waste their very limited resources in a war they can't win. Autumn is coming and there is no Russian gas, the economy is a disaster, IMF austerity measures are starting, many politicians and parties are leaving the coalition, the Parliament has just been dissolved, even the West is starting to show changes (the media is starting to forget Ukraine, which is a sign that the support to the Kiev government is losing momentum; and Merkel recently said she supports the federalization of Ukraine), so I don't think the Poroshenko regime will last much. Ukraine will be added to the long list of Western adventures that miserably failed, again at the cost of thousands of lives and lots of material destruction.

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