The Smolensk presidential plane crash 2010

Discussion in 'International Politics' started by Archyski, Oct 8, 2013.

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Do you believe that the russian government had something to do with the Smolensk plane crash ?

  1. Yes.

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  2. No.

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  1. Archyski

    Archyski Dead Soul

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    Hi.

    I'm new to this site, and I'm here to get some russian point of views of anything.

    Looking through youtube, I see tons of videos about the Smolensk plane crash in 2010, with the polish president and tons of other staff on board the plane.

    There is videos with explanations of how the pilot did several mistakes, but also videos showing how the mistakes couldn't have happen as the russians explains it. Also a video taped by some "civilian" who shows russian soldiers shooting survivors, and rumors say that the civilian later committed "suicide" But I can't see if this video is fake or real.

    But this thread isn't about how the video is real or not.

    How is the debate in Russia, if there are any ?

    Does some believe that it was in the interest of Russia to kill the Polish president ?

    Or is it just the polish, who wants to blame Russia for anything ?
  2. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    Saakashvili is in good health, isn't he?

    I don't see how the russians would view the Polish president as more that a mildly irritating grumpy old man. He was just not that important and even if he were the Russians don't have a history of killing foreign leaders.
  3. Archyski

    Archyski Dead Soul

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    So you havn't heard any points of view that the plane crash wasn't an accident?
  4. Kolokol

    Kolokol Office Registrar (13th class)

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  5. Carlo

    Carlo Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    It would be impossible that such a high profile crash could be performed by Russia without anyone noticing. Polish officials had full access to the site, debris, black boxes and bodies in the very aftermath of the accident, and no real evidence that it was deliberated was ever presented.
  6. john smith

    john smith Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    I posted some articles and videos about this including those on the Chechen jihadist site KavakCenter that there was also a Dutch documentary indicating that it was a Russian hit on Karlins blog DaRussophile.

    I don't actually believe the Russians did it as;

    a) Poland will always be aligned with western interests against Russia no matter what the leadership.

    b) Poland is of no strategic interest to Russia as it is not a transit country for Russian oil and gas like Ukraine and Belarus to Europe.

    c) They would have nothing to gain and everything to lose if they did do it.

    d) It was a spontaneous decision of the President to turn the commemoration of the Katyn massacre into a political event by forcing himself and his important heads of state on one plane and inviting themselves so it was not a pre-arranged event so the FSB would not have prior knowledge of there departure.
    Carlo likes this.
  7. Drutten

    Drutten Collegiate Secretary (10th class)

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    The video itself is real, albeit the subtitled translations are not (nobody actually speaks Polish in it, nobody mentions any killing, shooting or anything like that, it's all made-up). The so-called gun shots appear to be random things popping in the fires, from gas bottles to detonating pistol rounds carried by the presidential security crew -- if I recall correctly they can be heard popping on other material as well, including news clips and those film crews arrived much later.

    And I doubt there were any survivors that could be shot, anyway. The plane was completely shredded and engulfed in fire, with victims' bodies in a rather sorry state overall.

    All things considered, nothing points to it being anything other than the usual CFIT due to bad piloting, severe fog and a hint of FOD at the end. Basically the three most common causes for incidents like these, all combined and all confirmed to have been involved. Go figure. Everything I've read on the matter makes sense, even though various minor details remain somewhat sketchy, which honestly is commonplace in big investigations and doesn't necessarily mean anything fishy in the long run.

    Also, lots of valuable information can be obtained if one studies what was being said at the time on the Runet. For instance, you find Smolensk residents pointing out that the fog was incredibly thick around the city - one resident commented that "the ground is now barely visible from my apartment on the 9th floor" less than an hour after the impact, and indeed the horrible fog situation was confirmed to have caused serious concern for two prior aircraft in the area, one which simply decided to give up trying to land -- deeming it impossible.

    You also find loads of comments by various passer-bys in the moments after the crash. None of which suggest anything like magical FSB agents teleporting into a crash site mere minutes after impact at a ditherto unknown location, to shoot a few superhuman survivors who, as opposed to their completely incinerated co-passengers managed to crawl out unscathed (to the point of being able to stand, walk, run and supposedly, plead for mercy)... Oh, and that in plain sight of the random camera man getting it all on film, and all the other witnesses in the area.

    Also, the Ukrainian journalist who is said to have filmed it, "Andrey Menderey" apparently never existed at all. The story about his elaborate murder ("staged suicide") is likewise fake, seemingly originating from a random blog post. According to many, the real author of the video is supposed to be а Smolensk resident and car repairman who happened to be in the area, seizing the moment with his crappy phone camera. Vague, but more plausible than a fictional Ukrainian character.

    Many of these story elements and manipulated material that have become so popular can be traced back to various angry Polish conspiracy bloggers and to the Chechen "internet agency" Kavkaz Center. It does tie in well with previous conspiracy theories they have perpetrated as attempts to stain Russia's rep.

    And as with everything, literally everything, YouTube gets flooded with videos that "prove" this and that. You know, sciency and seemingly well-supported stuff, whether it's about the Apollo landings or nuclear weapons (apparently they're all hoaxed, now). Basically, nothing like that can be taken at face value and it sometimes takes ages to spot the lies and distortions in them. Of course, that doesn't mean that there aren't such YouTube-"investigations" that contain truth, or some shred of it, but it's a total jungle of disinformation out there and finding the nuggets is a near impossible task.
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2013
  8. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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    The Polish President was not even invited - Donald Tusk was officially attending the ceremony. Kaczynski got his innards in a knot and decided to go uninvited. He took off with a crew who had been together only a few weeks and had not had time to get used to one another's habits and procedures. The plane was equipped with an American-made terrain-avoidance system, but somebody in the crew turned it off because its insistent warnings to "Pull Up" were distracting the pilot. The plane was slightly to one side of the runway and flying over a ravine, so that the ground fell away and the altimeter gave the crew a false impression that they were higher than they actually were; when they reached the other side of the ravine there was no time to react. The Russians on the ground had told the flight crew the conditions were below limits for landing and recommended the plane divert to another airfield, but the Polish crew was in communication with another plane already on the ground, which had brought in a load of journalists. Somebody in the flight crew of that aircraft told the President's crew that the conditions didn't look that bad to him and that they should go ahead and try it. It's very difficult to estimate from the ground what the actual ceiling is and what the airfield looks like from the air in the middle of a fog bank. The terrain-avoidance system was functioning properly and doing what it was designed to do - if they had listened and obeyed they likely would be alive today.
  9. royotoyo

    royotoyo Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    To me, one of the more interesting tidbits about this incident is how Kaczynski had gotten into a conflict with his former pilot back in 2008 during the Russo-Georgian War. The pilot refused to land in a hot war zone, refusing the orders of his boss the President. The pilot was later fired and suffered a nervous breakdown. I'm sure the pilot in the Smolensk crash was aware of that story and was eager to please. The Armavia crash in Sochi was also the result of some high ranking secret police official insisting on a landing during inclement conditions. Conclusions here are pretty easily drawn.
  10. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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    Here's a dandy site which claims to refute every item in the press which might indemnify Russia - nope, the dirty Russians were in it up to their necks, and everything which appeared in the Russian press about the crash was designed to tire the reader out with conflicting information. In actual fact (according to this source), the Russians plowed the wreckage under to hide evidence "having no regard for human remains", and nobody attempted in any way to interfere with the flight crew (allegedly proven by the recordings, and anything else is a Russian lie), except of course for the Russians, who illegally told the pilot to descend to 50 meters. Very interesting viewpoint. Note the Polish crest and the "2010 Katyn Families" device.

    http://smolenskcrash.eu/news-57-misconceptions-let39s-get-things-straight.html

    Here are the transcripts in English of the R/T conversation between the flight crew and the ground; the transmission at 10:49 is the crew of the plane already on the ground, the one carrying the journalists. You can read that the flight crew on the ground told the pilot of the presidential plane " Yeah, we managed to land at the last minute. But speaking frankly, you can definitely try. There are two APMs, they made a gate, so you can try, but… If you’re unable by the second attempt, I advise you to try, for example Moscow, or somewhere [else]." In the first part of the transmission, he tells the pilot that the base is below 50 meters.

    http://www.krakowpost.com/article/2132

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