The Moscow Elections, 8 Sept 2013

Discussion in 'Russian Politics' started by AKarlin, Jul 29, 2013.

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Who would you vote for as Mayor of Moscow?

Poll closed Sep 2, 2013.
  1. Sergey Sobyanin

    66.7%
  2. Alexei Navalny

    11.1%
  3. Ivan Melnikov

    22.2%
  4. Mikhail Degtyaryov

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Nikolai Levichev

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Sergey Mitrokhin

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Other - clarify

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    This election result is pretty much ideal.

    (1) Sobyanin won in the first round - and not by an absolutely minimal amount like ~1% (which could provoke protests from the perennially malcontented aka the street opposition), but by a comfortable 3%+.

    (2) Navalny got a solid 30%, which means that - if rumors are to be believed - the Kremlin may back off from throwing him in jail.

    (3) The vote was by all accounts fairly counted, so any complaints from the hamsters on that count will be getting short shrift.

    (4) Last but definitely not least, @MarkPavelovich is now my slave (as opposed to it being the other way round).
  2. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    Navalny's reward:

    [​IMG]
  3. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    I think Navalny might have performed even better than we thought.

    Basically, as votes continue to count in, his result keeps rising. Considering that the elderly vote earliest, in the mornings, while young people tend to sleep in more often - and we know the demographics of Navalny's/Sobyanin's support base - it is not impossible that there actually will be a second round.
  4. Alexander Mercouris

    Alexander Mercouris Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    I think that is extremely unlikely. It is (or should be) the Court's decision. If "the Kremlin" intervenes to keep Navalny out of prison it would be an admission that the Court case against him was politically motivated. I can't believe the authorities would do that firstly because I don't think the case against Navalny was politically motivated and secondly because even if it was it would be disastrous to admit it.

    On another front, I am afraid Navalny is already crying foul even though even Golos confirms Sobyanin won.
  5. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    В штабе Сергея Собянина допускают, что будет второй тур выборов мэра Москвы

    Согласно данным ВЦИОМ, Сергей Собянин набирает 53% голосов. Алексей Навальный - 32% голосов. Иван Мельников - 8%.

    Sergei Sobyanin's HQ concedes that there will be a second round of elections for Moscow mayor.

    According to data from VTsIOM: Sergei Sobyanin - 53%; Aleksei Havalny - 32%; Ivan Melnikov - 8%.
  6. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    Well, I mean not "openly." A discrete telephone call. ;) And exit polls are one thing - but as votes are coming in, Sobyanin's percentage is trending downwards. It's already at ~52%.

    Anyhow, best of luck on the RT appearance, which I gather will be quite soon now, and hope you have a fun time there!
  7. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    He's already Twittered that a Kremlin 53% really means 47%.
  8. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    Update: 51.6%... and only 18% counted. Not looking good. Chances of 2nd round rapidly rising.

    [​IMG]Kevin Rothrock‏@KevinRothrock
    18% of all precincts now reporting, says @golosinfo, & Sobyanin has fallen to 51.56%. #RussiaVotes RT @varlamov: 665 УИКов — Собянин 51,56%



    EDIT: Okay, forget about that.... maybe. Data from Central Elections Commission:

    22:10 ЦИК РОССИИ: Сергей Собянин — 57,77%, Алексей Навальный — 21,56%, Иван Мельников —10,01%, Михаил Дегтярев — 3,17% Сергей Митрохин — 3,03%, Николай Левичев — 2,94%

    EDIT UPDATE: That's the first 3% of the ballots that have been counted. Can easily go down... or up.
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2013
  9. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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  10. Mark Sleboda

    Mark Sleboda Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    "Basically, as votes continue to count in, his result keeps rising. Considering that the elderly vote earliest, in the mornings, while young people tend to sleep in more often - and we know the demographics of Navalny's/Sobyanin's support base - it is not impossible that there actually will be a second round."

    Results are not reported in on a rolling basis. They are all tabulated and turned in only after the polls close
  11. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    Team Navalny has started work!

    A report of 120,000 suspicious votes coming in and allegations by the hamsters that 5-6% of the votes have been "manipulated".

    The angry rodents are not excluding the possibility of night time protests.

    Maidan re-run?

    Where will the camp be?

    At Bolotnaya tomorrow, I should think, or even now!

    Oh what fun there will be!
  12. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    "По словам Навального, на фальсификации указывает тот факт, что спустя два с лишним часа после окончания голосования не объявлена явка и нет данных с КОИБов."

    22.31 Moscow

    Navalny refuses to accept election first results.

    He’s seriously calling out foul now.

    All according to plan!
  13. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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  14. Russian Truth

    Russian Truth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    Not even over and Navalny's entire camp is saying that they will not recognize the results. I am just waiting for Michael McFaul to tweet something stupid about the election. He never fails to do that.

    M
  15. Alexander Mercouris

    Alexander Mercouris Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    The latest result I have seen is Sobyanin at 51.7% and Navalny at 26.90% with 65% of the vote counted.
  16. Russian Truth

    Russian Truth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    Navalny confirms that there will be street protests. No surprise there. At 51.54% with 72% of votes in.
    76,23% обработали. Собянин - 51,47%, Навальный - 27.11% - Brand new. Just was tweeted.

    Update: Rally will be at Bolotnaya Square and capped at 2,500 people.

    My avatar comes from this VK group. - http://vk.com/navalnystop

    Update: 80,37%. Собянин - 51,40%, Навальный - 27.20% - You would think it will end up just over 51%. Of course the Western press will be ordered to scream foul.
    Just go here for the newest updates. Seems to be the first place to release them (from what I can tell): https://twitter.com/infomoscow24

    Last edited: Sep 8, 2013
  17. Patrick Armstrong

    Patrick Armstrong Commissar

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    Nav 27% -- that's more than most of us would have predicted (I too)
  18. Alexander Mercouris

    Alexander Mercouris Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    At over 90% of the ballots counted Sobyanin has got 51.14%. An second round is starting to look rather unlikely . Navalny is at just over 27%. Both Sobyanin's and Navalny's results so far are below their exit poll figures though not by much.

    Before anyone rushes to criticise the polling agencies please recall that the last VTsIOM poll gave Navalny 11% of total respondents, Levada 10% and Ipsos 13%. Total turnout was 33% so the percentage of registered Muscovites who voted for Navalny is around 9% - slightly below what the polling agencies all gave him but the figure he was getting at the start of the campaign. Navalny nonetheless managed to get his vote out. What none of the polling agencies predicted was that turnout would be as low as it is. I think it's fairly clear that it was Sobyanin who was most affected by this because he failed to get much of his vote out: a consequence I am afraid of a near combination of complacency and an non existent campaign from him.

    Navalny will surely contest the result but with virtually everyone else saying this was a clean poll and just 9% of the registered electorate (which is not the same as Moscow's total population, which is much larger) voting for him fears of a colour revolution are misplaced.
  19. Alexander Mercouris

    Alexander Mercouris Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    With just under 94% of votes counted Sobyanin stands at 51.08%. It may be too early to completely exclude the possibility but a run off looks to me at the moment unlikely.

    On a crude rule of thumb calculation, Navalny has managed to get 9% of registered Muscovites to vote for him. On the assumption that turnout in Presidential elections in Moscow is in line with that nationally, that compares with the 12% of registered Muscovites that Yavlinsky and Prokhorov each managed to get to vote for them in 2000 and 2012. That gives us an overall idea of the size of the liberal population of Moscow when it can be made to unite around one candidate.
  20. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    This was a clean poll.

    Here is some hard evidence from this, from the guy who was a consistent critic of falsifications in 2011 and 2012: http://podmoskovnik.livejournal.com/169624.html

    The liberals are saying that the election protocols gathered show Sobyanin getting 49.5% and that they are more accurate. However, a preliminary analysis of differences between the election results as given by the official CEC and the observers showed discrepancies in just 8 stations, and hilariously, the official numbers were actually a net benefit to NAVALNY!

    Of course I'm not saying that this means there was pro-Navalny fraud; that would be ridiculous. A rather more reasonable explanation is simply that election protocols weren't gathered from all stations and that the 1.5% point discrepancy between these two figures is just a sampling error. (The chances of any one station being observed and having its protocols collected is presumably correlated to the percentage of liberals who live within the precinct, thus forming a natural pro-Navalny bias).
    Alexander Mercouris likes this.

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