As it happens VTsIOM published its final opinion poll for the Moscow election on Monday. It gave Navalny 11% of total respondents - exactly the same as for its previous poll. In fact there has been barely any change in the overall rankings. The only candidate who is continuing to gain ground (at Sobyanin's expense) is Melnikov who has increased his share from 2% to 6% of total respondents over the course of the campaign. If there were more time it's possible that Melnikov might overtake Navalny but I have to say that doesn't for the moment look to me very likely. As it is, and I say this though I like Melnikov and wish him well, I am afraid an increase from 2% to 6% hardly represents a breakthrough. The truth is that any KPRF candidate would struggle against Sobyanin who is most popular with precisely those voters who are most likely to support the KPRF candidate. The two big Russian polling agencies have now in recent days each released polling figures. Levada gives Navalny 10% of total respondents and VTsIOM 11%. VTsIOM predicts Navalny will get 15.7% of total votes on election day. Levada gives him 16% of undecided voters and 18% of decided voters. Both Levada and VTsIOM predict a comfortable victory for Sobyanin in the first round. The third and newest polling agency, which is connected to Ipsos and which is less well established, gives Navalny slightly higher ratings - 13% of total respondents and 19% on election day. An 18-19% vote for Navalny would be in line with what Yavlinsky got in Moscow in the Presidential election of 2000 and what Prokhorov got in the Presidential election of 2012. At the moment it looks to be the absolute ceiling beyond which no liberal candidate in Moscow can go. With a weak challenge from Melnikov even on Ipsos's figures Sobyanin should win comfortably in the first round. We are now less than a week away from the election and I can't see the results shifting much.