The Moscow Elections, 8 Sept 2013

Discussion in 'Russian Politics' started by AKarlin, Jul 29, 2013.

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Who would you vote for as Mayor of Moscow?

Poll closed Sep 2, 2013.
  1. Sergey Sobyanin

    66.7%
  2. Alexei Navalny

    11.1%
  3. Ivan Melnikov

    22.2%
  4. Mikhail Degtyaryov

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Nikolai Levichev

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Sergey Mitrokhin

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Other - clarify

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    Asking who will win is rather pointless. Of course Sobyanin.

    The really interesting question is what percentage will Navalny get - will it be closer to 5%, or 25%? His numbers are definitely showing an upwards trend, helped in no small part by his recent... ordeals, so I predict it will be closer to the latter.

    I don't expect widespread falsifications this time round, because while Moscow elections became very corrupt under the later Luzhkov and in 2011, in 2012 they suddenly became squeaky clean again. Assuming that remains the case - and why not? Sobyanin has no need to resort to fraud to win - I expect Navalny to get something close to 20%. Sobyanin - maybe 60%. Melnikov to get the usual KPRFists minus some because nobody knows about him, Degtyarev and Levichev to get small single digits because who the heck are they?

    So in this thread, feel free to:

    (1) Predict/explain what Sobyanin, Navalny, and other candidates will get.

    (2) Your own electoral preferences.

    (3) Other issues related to the elections such as the various programs, etc.

    Believe it or not, but I will actually vote for Navalny. (Well, I won't, because I won't be there, but still). This is not to say that I want Navalny to win. I think, as do many Muscovites, that Sobyanin does a basically fine and competent job, and understands the importance of decentralizing the city to offload stress from a seriously strained transport system. But I do want Navalny to get closer to 25% than to 5%. Why? Because then it increases - at least according to many analyses - the likelihood that his verdict will be softened to a conditional term, or overturned altogether (though the latter is unlikely). I support that because whatever the merits or demerits of the case against Navalny it is an objective fact that it is PR catastrophe and one that Russia should be very loth to deal with.

    With all due respect to Alexander Mercouris, when you need to write a 16,500 word essay defending the soundness of the verdict while the other side has a basket full of soundbytes like "But how can you steal a forest?" or "What about Serdyukov?" it's probably best to concede a tactical defeat, drop the matter, and move on.
  2. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    (1) Sobyanin to win by a 60% majority because, as AK states above, he "does a basically fine and competent job". Navalny - 8%, because the majority of Muscovites does not consist of his bourgeois hamsters, considers him a big mouth with no policies, just waffle, and a Washington Stooge.

    (2) Sobyanin.
  3. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    Well, strong ideological preferences are fine, but they shouldn't cloud one's sense of objective reality. Not a single poll in July has put Navalny at less than 10%.

    In fact, according to the latest Comcon poll, he is now at 15.7%. As such, I think that 20%, maybe even 25% is entirely realistic. But we'll see - there's still 5 weeks to go.
  4. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    One can only live in hope. And if it gets out that the Chosen One really does have an account in the USA, then it's go straight to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $200.

    See Interfax.

    Translation:

    Moscow. July 25. INTERFAX.RU - The head of the opposition election headquarters, Leonid Volkov, has said that candidate for the Moscow mayoral election, Alexei Navalny, definitely had an account in a U.S. bank when he was studying at Yale University (USA), but he made no use of it, closed it and notified the Mosgorizbirkom [Moscow City Election Committee- ME].

    "The fact that Alexei had a U.S. bank account has never been made a secret by him. When, during his studies at Yale, he lived with his family in America, he opened a US bank account, of course, to pay for things like gas an electricity bills. This is no secret", said Volov.

    "It's wrong claiming that he thinks we all should wear simple peasant dress, engage in patriotism and love the motherland, but at the same time have an apartment in Miami: that's hypocrisy", said the head of Navalny's election headquarters .

    On Thursday, the newspaper "Izvestia" referred to the hacker "Hell", who is known for hacking Navalny's email , reporting that the opposition leader and his wife had an account at Bank of America Alert. According to the hacker, Navalny opened the account in August 2010, and his wife - in November of the same year.
  5. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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    "Not a single poll in July has put Navalny at less than 10%. "

    But it is a verifiable phenomenon that the more people know about Alexei Navalny, the less they like him. He is in a tactical situation whereby people tend to dislike him on the basis of a broader acquaintance, but where he will be quickly forgotten and of less consequence every day he is not in the news. I say he will not break 8%, and his take will probably be closer to 5%. Even that will be interpreted by his hamsters as a high-fiving victory, since it is the threshold for parliamentary seats and a goal Boris "Dyedushka" Nemtsov (as he refers, sardonically, to himself; in fact, he is not that old and is in fabulous shape for his age) frequently failed to achieve despite coming across as a good deal more sensible and grounded than Navalny.
  6. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    About the bank account - unless the money there is in the order of $10,000's or more, it would be absolutely unfair to condemn Navalny for that. He studied in Yale. It is impossible to live in the US without a bank account. You need one just to pay the bills. It is entirely feasible for him to have just forgotten about it once he was done with the US, after all there were things of far greater priority after that. I suppose it would be possible to disqualify him using that as a technicality - if it is proven that his bank account still exists - but doing so would be a travesty and would completely delegitimize the Moscow elections.

    @Mark,

    But it is a verifiable phenomenon that the more people know about Alexei Navalny, the less they like him... I say he will not break 8%, and his take will probably be closer to 5%.

    Okay. I'll bet he'll get something like 20%. Maybe 15%; maybe 25%. But certainly more than 10%.

    Incidentally, the latest Comcon poll now has him at 16%.
  7. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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    It's a deal.

    About the bank account(s); agreed. Unless there is a pile of money in it/them (his wife has one as well), it's irrelevant and obviously outside the intent of the law if not the letter of it.
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  8. Sergey

    Sergey Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    Well, Comcon has no track record in political polling whatsoever, and there are reports that its head is a known Navalny sympathizer. Following Comcon is like trusting Razumkov Center's sociology on Yushenko - Razumkov's Center head went on to become Yushenko's minister of defense later on.

    FOM gives 6% to Navalny, with a ceiling of 12%, http://fom.ru/obshchestvo/11011, and Levada was giving what - 9%?
  9. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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    I put my faith in the people of Moscow, and in their ability to differentiate between a leader and a posturing popinjay. I doubt there are very many politicians who write their own campaigns or plans, but Navalny's sounds like he is just bopping to the script and has absolutely no idea how he would bring any of his initiatives to fruition, if they are even achievable.

    A good leader, especially of anything so diverse as an entire major city, is a trader, a negotiator and a compromiser. Navalny has exhibited no ability in any of these. Granted, he's untried, and everybody has to start somewhere, but his apparent stubbornness, vanity and disinterest in anything that has lost its power to divert and entertain him - the Coordinating Council is a good example - do not bode well for the rise of his political star.
  10. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    Is he a gladiator or is he a Commie?


    [​IMG]

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    Ave Putin, morituris te salutat?

    :)
  11. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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    I see you too are an admirer of Mr. Navalny's "Nordic good looks".

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/w...ogger-aleksei-navalny-rouses-russia.html?_r=0

    To me, he looks as slavic as golubtsiy. But I guess "Nordic" strikes a more comfortable chord with westerners. Even though they fought a war against a certain Nordic group over their penchant for wiping out Jewry, and Slavs were on the same side as the west. In fact, according to Operation Paperclip, Americans' fascination with the Nordic peoples did not end with their good looks. Both NASA and the U.S. ICBM program were built on the work of nearly 500 captured Nazi scientists, spirited to the USA in the closing days of the war exclusive of State Department review (since their work for the Third Reich would have disqualified them from obtaining visas). Where there's a will, there's a way, right?

    http://www.operationpaperclip.info/

    And I must confess, that clenched fist salute does make him look Nordic.
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  12. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    I tell you what - Moscow Miriam* must be a midget if she thinks Yulia Navalnaya is statuesque. Or maybe she is statuesque, but her husband is 7 foot tall?

    *Erstwhile Guardian UK Moscow correspondent Miriam Elder.
  13. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    Well, about Comcon - yes, people have their biases. But so does FOM. In fact, there was that famous and exceedingly excruciating moment in 2011 when they simply removed their own Moscow polls from their website (but not before bloggers copied it) because they showed United Russia getting 25% when it had actually gotten 47%. So I'm not at all sure that discrediting the results of opinion polls based on the political preferences of their owners is something we should engage in unless there is firm evidence that that is actually the case.

    About the FOM poll - it has to be adjusted for the numbers of people who said they weren't going to vote for anyone, spoil their ballots, didn't want to comment, etc. They formed 35% of their sample. That means Navalny's 6% is in fact around about 9%. Levada's result above is likewise "raw" and has to be adjusted upwards.
  14. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    To me his features look totally Nordic*. I even know a Swede whose features match Navalny's to a T.

    Nose is straight and pointy, not like a Slavic pug. Long face with high forehead. Blue eyes. Hair entirely typical of the range you get in Scandinavia.

    * By Nordic, I mean Swedish/Danish. Maybe it's just me, but in my experience Norwegians' facial features tend to be a lot more similar to Eastern Slavs.
  15. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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    "About the FOM poll - it has to be adjusted for the numbers of people who said they weren't going to vote for anyone, spoil their ballots, didn't want to comment, etc. They formed 35% of their sample. That means Navalny's 6% is in fact around about 9%. Levada's result above is likewise "raw" and has to be adjusted upwards."

    What matters is what the returns say on election day. Don't plan anything for the day after, because you will be in my driveway wearing your sequined imitation-leather banana hammock, washing my car.
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  16. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    From the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (ВЦИОМ), 23rd July 2013:

    В электоральном рейтинге кандидатов на пост мэра столицы лидирует С.Собянин (54%). Среди остальных кандидатов наибольший уровень поддержки имеет А.Навальный (9%).В гонку включился и И.Мельников (4%)...

    [S. Sobyanin leads at 54% in the electoral rating of candidates for the post of mayor of the capital. Amongst the remaining candidates that have the highest support is A.Navalny at 9%. I. Melnikov has joined the race with a rating of 4%.]

    ...В электоральном рейтинге кандидатов на пост мэра столицы лидирует С.Собянин (54% опрошенных поддержали бы его, если бы выборы состоялись в ближайшее воскресенье). Второе место занимает А.Навальный (9%). Позитивную динамику демонстрирует И.Мельников, поднявшийся в рейтинге с четвертого на третье место за прошедшие десять дней (с 2 до 4%). И напротив, несколько ослабил позиции С.Митрохин, занимавший ранее третье место в рейтинге (2%). Прежние позиции сохранил М.Дегтярев (1%).

    [In the electoral rating of candidates for the post of Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin leads (54% of respondents would support him if elections were held next Sunday). Second place goes to A.Navalny (9%). A positive dynamic has been demonstrated by I. Melnikov, who has risen in the rankings from fourth to third place in the last ten days (4%, up from 2%). In contrast, Mitrokhin (2%), who was previously in third place in the ranking , has had his position somewhat weakened. M.Degtyarev maintains his position as of before (1%).]
  17. Sergey

    Sergey Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    On FOM 2011 incident - perhaps we'll learn what it was, eventually, but I could give you some Excel tables with grades of students in a class which looked crazy because I messed up a formula in some cells. Things happen. I and my colleagues do change their grades because of stupid errors after they are released to the students all the time. I think people at FOM are as human as me and my colleagues.

    It is well known that some pollsters have biases - did you follow Nate Silver blog around the US Presidential elections? There's nothing criminal in saying that Republican pollsters are biased towards R and Democratic towards D - it's just a matter of fact. I'm saying that Comcon is biased towards N. We'll see on the election day.

    Point taken. So we have 9%, assuming the same pattern of actually showing up between Navalny adherents and those who expressed preferences for Sobyanin. As there's no recent history of voting for mayor in Moscow, and both S and N weren't on any ballot in Moscow before, creating a voting model is impossible. Variation among major pollsters should be rather large, if they do try to predict outcomes of Sep 8 vote rather than simply reporting raw data.
  18. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    Latest (5th August 2013) VTsIOM stats:
    Sergei Sobyanin (55% of respondents would support him if elections were held next Sunday). Second place goes to A.Navalny (9%). Next in the ranking followed by I. Melnikov (4%), Mitrokhin (3%), M.Degtyarev (2%) and M. Degtyarev (1%).
    See: «ВЫБОРЫ МЭРА МОСКВЫ: РЕЙТИНГИ КАНДИДАТОВ» (Mayoral Election Candidates’ Ratings)


    [​IMG]
  19. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    [​IMG]


    According to gazeta.ru, the deputy director of the Centre for Political Technologies, Alexei Makarkin, notes that Navalny's rating has been growing steadily, but his present position is not good enough: it needs a qualitative leap.

    "I think that one of one of the problems for the Navalny team appears to have been their high expectations. When he was suddenly released, there arose amongst his supporters the feeling that literally everyone would vote for him, but that's not the case. For sure, Navalny is positioned in second place after Sobyanin, but the gap between them is significant."

    These high expectations have also been drummed up in the West, where it seems political commentators have come to believe their own unresearched, bullshit propaganda.
  20. Moscow Exile

    Moscow Exile Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    The Great Leader, the Washington Chosen One, addresses his followers:

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