The DEMOGRAPHY Thread

Discussion in 'Russian Society' started by Morgoth, May 8, 2013.

  1. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    The demographic data for 2013 is out, births surpassed deaths in 2013, the first time since 1991 and the first time in the history of the Russian Federation. The change which has occurred in the last 8 years is astonishing. Between 2005 - 2013 Russia has gone form having an excess of 850,000 deaths over births to having a surplus of births over deaths. In December, births surpassed deaths by 263 compared to a deficit of 7,173 last year. Interestingly, December was the only month this year in which births rose and deaths fell, in all other months births and deaths fell or rose together.

    http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/2013/demo/edn12-13.htm
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  2. Sergey

    Sergey Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    It was the best December in births and second-best December in deaths in the last 13 years - and by extension, since probably 1991. The fact that December births were higher than in November is unusual - typically, births fall between Nov and Dec -, but overall, the seasonal patterns in births in 2013 were resembling 2008 and 2009 much more than an average pattern. Lower number of deaths was definitely helped by a very warm winter - really cold weather arrived only in January.

    In births, 5 months out of 12 saw records, and in deaths it was 6 months out of 12.

    With the effect of an extra day in 2012 taken out, daily intensity of births was 0.55% higher, and of deaths 0.81% lower.

    Natural decline turned into a small increase. However, the second derivative keeps falling, indicating that we are very close to the eventual peak: Between 2007 and 2012, natural decrease improved by about 95 thousand per year, but between 2012 and 2013, the swing is less than 26 thousand. More or less, the deaths stopped falling at a clip of 50 thousand per year in the last couple years, and unless the rate of improvement there increases, return to natural decrease in the next 2-3 years is inevitable. Sustained anti-alcohol and anti-smoking campaigns could postpone that date.
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  3. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    I will have a post on this, hopefully sooner rather than later.

    Incidentally, I got my prediction of natural growth resuming in 2013 exactly right. Even I'm amazed by that.
  4. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    Anatoly,
    I must congratulate you on the being perhaps the only Russia watcher that was able to correctly predict the evolution of the demographic situation in Russia when many others and even international organisations such as the UN were woefully off.

    I wonder how the demographic situation in Russia will evolve in 2014, deaths will probably fall by 35,000 or so primarily to the high base effect of the 1st quarter of 2013 and births will probably stay stable with the fertility rate rising to around 1.75.
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  5. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    The figures for the first 2 months are out, births dropped by 400 equivalent 0.1% and deaths dropped by 11,400, a drop of 3.5%. It seems that births will most likely stay stable or slightly decline his year, and deaths will drop by a more significant margin, possible by up to 3%. I predict a decline of around 2.5% in the number of deaths and a drop of 0.5% or so in births, most likely, Russia will record a natural increase of 60,000 or so this year compared to 23,000 last year.
  6. Sergey

    Sergey Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    I cautiously agree re births, but deaths could have benefited from a very warm winter. Don't forget the late autumn of 2013 was also warm, providing a low base for 2014 mortality down the road. Moreover, I've read that forest fires started very early this year - if there's another dry and hot summer, deaths could skyrocket.

    I'd consider your number - 60 thousand - as the upper limit of what's plausible this year. I'd expect higher natural growth than last year, but probably in 30-50 thousand range. But we need to see at least a quarter of data, to see if the seasonal pattern of births has returned to the usual one - this will allow a guesstimate on what to expect in 2014.
  7. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    I agree, once the figures for March are out we will be able to form a pretty good picture of what the rest of the year is likely to be like demographically speaking.

    By the way, the demographic situation in the rest of eastern Europe seems to have worsened in 2013, something shown quite clearly by looking at the 2 most populous eastern European nations, Poland and Ukraine. In Poland, the birth rate fell from 10.1/1000 in 2012 to 9.6/1000 last year, the fertility rate being estimated to have fallen to 1.25, one of the lowest levels anywhere in the world.

    In Ukraine likewise, the birth rate slipped from 11.4/1000 to 11.1/1000 with the death rate climbing to 14.6/1000 from 14.5/1000, these indicators are likely to worsen in the coming years both due changes in the age structure and if the current economic situation does not take a turn for the better.
  8. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    With the demographic data out for the first quarter, we can form some conclusions as to what the rest of this year will be like, births rose by 0.9% from 448,000 to 452,000 while deaths dropped by 3.3% from 491,000 to 475,000. The drop in deaths for the remainder of this year are likely to be less, around 2% as the the deaths in the 1st quarter were coming off a high base set last year.

    Overall, it seems likely that births will total 1,900k while deaths will probably drop to 1,830k giving natural increase of 70,000 or so.
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  9. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    The data for the first 4 months of 2014 continues the broad trends seen in the first 3 months of the year. Births are up by 1.6% while deaths are down by 2.4%, as I predicted, because we have come off the high base of deaths which was seen in the 1st quarter of 2013, the decline in deaths is likely to slow down and only be 2% or so.

    However, I must say the rise in births has surprised me, the number of births has risen for 3 months in a row this year, the longest sustained rise in births since mid 2012, nearly 2 years. The number of births in February, March and April have risen by 3.7%, 3% and 3.9% respectively, let us see how long this rise in births continues.

    The rate of natural increase has eased from -1.2/1000 to -0.6/1000 on an annualized basis, an improvement of 0.6/1000 or 88,000 people, Russia could well see natural increase reach 100,000 this year if the rise in births is sustained.
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