The Crimea Crisis

Discussion in 'The Near Abroad' started by José Moreira, Feb 28, 2014.

  1. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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  2. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    New info on the armed militias here:

    Russian ‘Blackwater’ Takes Over Ukraine Airport
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...an-blackwater-takes-over-ukraine-airport.html


  3. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    Reports that 13 heavy transport planes IL-76 have arrived in Crimea with 2000 russian airborne troops;

    http://izvestia.kiev.ua/article/60998

    From AFP:

    My guess is that Russia will increase the troops to the maximum allowed by the base treaty. Maybe will bring Yanukovych to Crimea and set up a sort of Taiwan on the Black Sea, with a parallel government. Probably their goal is to try to force the new power to go back to the agreement that was signed before Yanukovych was kicked out.
  4. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    Obama spoke about the situation in Crimea a few hours ago (summary: he is deeply concerned and will do exactly nothing about it) and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia tweeted this:
    Someone is getting nervous?
  5. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    The Berkut learned something from their Maiden experience and have now built their own barricades in Simferopol.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
  6. MarkPavelovich

    MarkPavelovich Commissar

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    You're probably right that Russia will increase troop concentration in the area up to the limit allowed by the treaty, but most sources which reported those planes credited the same "senior Ukrainian official" and followed with a disclaimer that it was not confirmed. Meanwhile, for his part, Turchnov urged Putin to stop provocations and negotiate. "Negotiate" what??? Permission to breathe?

    Obama's weighty warning that "there will be costs" for any intervention in Crimea did not even inspire raised eyebrows; it was simply ignored. As a commenter here suggested, the world has seen and heard enough about Obama's "red lines".

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...ements-taken-by-russia-in-ukraine-337973.html

    Yatsenyuk stepped up to warn that Ukrainian forces were "quite capable of doing their job", and warned Russia "no boots on the ground" (God, how tired I am of that overused cliche phrase). He looked very scary when he said it, sort of like a Ninja accountant or something. I bet he doesn't even know where half the Ukrainian forces are, never mind in what kind of shape they might be, and if they have not been paid for months their enthusiasm level might be a little low.
  7. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    Yes, there will be heavy sulking and he will probably throw a tantrum and not attend the G8 meeting in Sochi, but why should he do more? The USA has no interest in Ukraine or Crimea, pushing Russia excepted.

    As for Russia is seems that is giving up on Ukraine for good and taking Crimea home (not annexing it, but putting it out of Kiev's control). I think from now on there will be no chance of Ukraine-as-we-know-it ever joining the Customs Union. However, after signing their precious Association Agreement Brussels's lust for Ukraine will cool down a lot. Then what? There is no way it will accept Ukraine as a full member any time soon. Russia will still be next door and will be a major economic and cultural influence. Kiev will have no vote in the EU, no vote in the Customs Union.

    On the other hand these events will make more difficult for NATO to commit to Ukraine, since Russia has shown that it will not hesitate to take military action there if it feels threatened. So what probably happen in the long run is that Ukraine will be Finlandized, as Zbigniew Brzezinski was proposing a few days ago.

    I suspect much of positions the Russians will take now will not have Ukraine in consideration, but will be mainly motivated to assert its position and discourage further interventions and colour revolutions.

    And in other news:

    Apparently there was an attempt to seize the Crimean Parliament last night:

    Google translation from the Russian MFA: http://mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/newsline/EA133E7EB54BDDA344257C8E00319FFE

    The parliament is now guarded by soldiers with machine guns:


    [​IMG]
  8. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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  9. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    From: http://www.segodnya.ua/regions/krym/referendum-v-krymu-perenesli-na-30-marta-499744.html

    Referendum in the Crimea was moved to March 30


    Transfer associated with "the deteriorating situation in the autonomy"

    Transferring national referendum to expand the status and powers of the Crimea from May 25 to March 30 is associated with deterioration of the situation in the autonomy, says the chairman of the Council of Ministers of Crimea Sergey Aksenov.

    "Given the current situation, realizing that this conflict has gone beyond reason, we have decided to accelerate the situation related to the conduct of the referendum. And plan to hold it in March this year, the approximate date - March 30," - he said in his speech at the opening session of the Council of Ministers of Crimea, which was shown in the special edition of the news STRC " Crimea ".

    "That is, we need to prepare, we fully to date have all possibilities to implement the decision of the Supreme Council of Crimea and will get the citizens on this issue," - he added
  10. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    Putin asks Federation Council for permit to send armed forces in Ukraine

    From RT : http://rt.com/news/russia-troops-ukraine-possible-359/

    Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday requested an approval of the Upper House of parliament to “use Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine to normalize the socio-political situation in that country,” Itar-Tass reported.


    The final decision to send troops to Crimea lies with President Vladimir Putin as Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, speaker of the Russian State Duma Council Valentina Matvienko said. The current circumstances make such a move possible, she said.

    It’s possible in this situation, complying with a request by the Crimean government, even to bring a limited contingent of our troops to ensure the safety of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian citizens living on Crimean territory. The decision is for the president, the chief military commander, to make, of course. But today, taking the situation into account, even that variant can’t be excluded. We need to protect the people,” Matvienko said.

    The Russian government has so far been careful in its assessment of the new self-proclaimed Ukrainian government in Kiev. Matvienko said the reason for that was Russia counting on its Western partners, who vowed to guarantee the February 21 agreements between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition.

    Russia did not interfere in the situation in Ukraine for a very long time and showed restraint, assuming that the Western states, which became backers of the agreements, would see that strict compliance with the deal is observed,” she said.

    However, after “violent upheaval” took place in Ukraine, the Western states did not come up with “any reasonable measures or responses,” Matvienko said.
  11. Fulcrum

    Fulcrum Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    I see reports from Maiden sources that Ukraine navy army units in Crimea were set on high alert as Russian Zubr-class landing ships are entering Feodosiya port and at least one Russian soldier ws captured.

    I also read that Ukraine navy ships were captured on port by Russian units. Still looking for confirmantion.

    BBC journo Gabriel Gatehouse says
    In Kharkov this is happening:

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 1, 2014
  12. Drutten

    Drutten Collegiate Secretary (10th class)

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    The locals are meeting with the evil invaders:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    (Polite, Russian, Yours)
  13. Fulcrum

    Fulcrum Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    Russian army blocking Ukrainian Coast Guard facilities in Balaclava:

    [​IMG]

    What are these vehicles? they look cool! :)
  14. Drutten

    Drutten Collegiate Secretary (10th class)

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    Iveco LMV.
  15. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    Looks like Crimea got a new tourist attraction!
  16. Drutten

    Drutten Collegiate Secretary (10th class)

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    Indeed.

    Today in Swedish media, they asked their correspondent in Crimea to assess the situation and asked if the people there were afraid of war. She said "no, the people seem pretty happy with everything and don't regard Russia as an invading force". Funny.

    More selfies:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2014
  17. Drutten

    Drutten Collegiate Secretary (10th class)

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    More Russian marines:
    [​IMG]

    Note the uniforms (recently issued "digital flora" set, tactical vest, polymer knee- and elbow pads, the most recent ballistic helmet etc), the AK-74M's with Picatinny rail systems and red dot sights, the spanking new Iveco LMV/Tiger and KamAZ-4350 (I think) vehicles and so on.

    This is like a PR campaign for the ongoing revamping of the Russian Armed Forces.
  18. Carlo

    Carlo Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    I am (pleasantly) surprised about how prepared Russia was for all this, specially in Crimea. They surely had been contacting and supporting the right people for years to be able to do this so fast and clean now.
  19. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    This picture is everywhere now. It's amazing the power that youth and beauty have in our world.
  20. Drutten

    Drutten Collegiate Secretary (10th class)

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    Smile!

    [​IMG]

    Hey man, you got a light?
    [​IMG]

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