Russia's demographic data for June 2013 is out

Discussion in 'Russian Society' started by AKarlin, Jul 29, 2013.

  1. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    Here it is, for those who read Russian. The May data also has emigration data, which is not included in the prelimary estimates - that is here.

    I will have a blog post on this sooner or later (hopefully sooner), but for now, a quick summary of demographic trends in Jan-Jun 2013 relative to the same period last year:
    • Births fell 0.3% and deaths fell 0.5%; as a result, the overall natural decrease has fallen from -57,000 in 2012 to -53,000 in 2013.
    • This is amply compensated for by the 101,000 net immigration for Jan-May 2013.
    • Russia's population is estimated to have risen from about 143.3m at the end of 2012 to 143.4 now, with the fertile summer months still ahead. Overall, we can reasonably expect that as with last year, zero natural population growth and 250,000-300,000 net immigrants will enable Russia to eke out another small if solid population increase to 143.5-143.6m by year-end.
    • In per capita terms, the birth rate remained steady at 12.7/1000 as did the death rate at 13.5/1000.
    • These figures are, of course, for the first half of the year; in the second half, births tend to rise while mortality falls (more Russians die during the winter). In 2012, the birth rate and death rate both converged to 13.3/1000 by year-end. Barring unexpected shocks, roughly the same thing should happen this year.
    And now, a brief regional comparison:
    • The situation in Ukraine is significantly worse. For Jan-May, the birth rate was at 10.3/1000 while the death rate was at 15.3/1000. Relative to the previous year, births fell while deaths remained steady.
    • In Belarus the birth rate for Jan-Jun is at 12.0/1000, while the death rate is at 13.8/1000. The death rate increased slightly from the previous year, while the birth rate increased significantly.
    • Caution should be used in interpreting these figures. In particular, Ukraine and Belarus don't, of course, have vigorous minorities in the Caucasus and southern Siberia as does Russia - who make up a small but certainly non-negligible fraction of its population.
    • In particular, comparing Belarus with Russia's Central region or Pskov, as would only be fair, it comes off looking very good indeed.
    • Ukraine however is definitely falling behind, especially considering that it too has a vigorous minority (of sorts) in the three westernmost oblasts which have a different demographic pattern to the rest of the country. Basically, there is no equivalent in either Russia (maybe a couple of particularly run down oblasts), Belarus, or probably anywhere else in the post-Soviet space for the very low birth rates and high death rates that characterize most of Ukraine's eastern and central regions.
    Apart from that:
    • The pattern of Russian mortality continues to get better, with deaths from external causes (aka the worst kind) falling most rapidly as has been the pattern of late. But deaths from alcohol poisoning, though still falling, are beginning to fall less rapidly. Could it be tied with more moonshine production in the wake of the big excise rises on vodka seen in the past few months?
    • The only major disease categories that saw increases in mortality are deaths from lung-related disease and from other causes. This might be tied to the unusually harsh winter seen this year (more elderly tend to die in hard winters, of the above causes).
  2. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    I would just like to say that if you do not read Russian, you can just click on one of the files such as, the data for June, download it and use Google translate to translate, it will give you a perfect translation. In addition, this data seems to confirm the trends in the first 5 months, that births and deaths will stay at the same levels that they were last year and and as a result population growth will also be around 0.2%, the same level which was seen in 2012.

    It is interesting to note that compared to the 1st quarter, in which births fell by 0.8% and deaths rose by 0.8% as a result of it would seem a harsh winter, in the 2nd quarter, births rose by 0.2% and deaths fell by 2.2%. It is likely that a 2% fall in deaths is the trend and that the harsh weather in the early months of 2013 caused a disruption to that trend.
  3. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    On somewhat of a side note it is interesting to note that the demographic situation in Poland in in the first 5 months of 2013 has worsened significantly, births have fallen by 5.5% and deaths have risen by 4.5%, natural decrease has risen from -4,000 to -20,000.
  4. Sergey

    Sergey Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research study shows that in general, higher unemployment leads to TFR drops relative to the pre-Great Recession trend in many European countries, see http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol29/4/29-4.pdf. In Russia, unemployment has reached record lows this year, in Poland it continues to grow, http://www.tradingeconomics.com/poland/unemployment-rate. Looks like nothing to explain here.
  5. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    True, but since Poland's fertility rate in 2012 was already so low, just, 1.3, any large scale drop will have catastrophic consequences for the long term demographic future of Poland. A continuation of the fall that we have seen in 5 months of this year through this year will result in a fertility rate of around 1.25, a 4% fall since around 1.5% of the decline in birth rates can be attributed to a decline in the number of women in the childbearing ages.
  6. Sergey

    Sergey Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    I'm not so sure about absolute values for Poland. Unemployment numbers for youth, approaching 50%, there seem totally out of whack with economy that was doing kind of OK in European terms. This suggests to me that maybe migrants aren't counted properly, as there's a clear incentive for immigrant to continue pretending they are in Poland and are unemployed (to continue receiving the benefits), which drives up measured unemployment and also the measured current population in Poland. Higher estimated population, then, drives down TFR numbers. I'm not sure how children born to Polish migrants would be counted, if Ireland-born little Polish plumbers don't go into Polish statistics, the picture might not be as grim as it looks.

    In any event, my comment was on the direction of change - Polish unemployment is going up which is coincident with declining TFR, and this is a pattern observed in most European countries recently. In Russia, the unemployment is going in the other direction. I started to hear voices that European recession is coming to an end, perhaps fertility will inch up a couple years later.
  7. Joshua

    Joshua Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    what are the statistics for ethnic group percentages? I heard ethnic Russians are 81% of the population as well as an influx of ethnic Russians returning aswell.

    btw as of 2013 the demographic tables have dramatic improvement in Ukraine (still not where it needs to be though) :
    Population: 45,547,800[​IMG] (1 January 2013)
    Growth rate: -3.1 [​IMG] people/1,000 population (2012)
    Birth rate: 11.4 [​IMG] births/1,000 population (2012)
    Death rate: 14.5 [​IMG] deaths/1,000 population (2012)
    Life expectancy: 71.22 years [​IMG] (2011)
    –male: 65.98 [​IMG] years
    –female: 75.88 [​IMG] years
    Fertility rate: 1.46 [​IMG] children born/woman (2011)
    Infant mortality rate: 8.5 deaths/1,000 [​IMG] infants (2012)
    Net migration rate: 0.3 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2008)
  8. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    Although Ukraine in 2012 did see its smallest natural population decline in 20 years, the demographic situation in the first 5 months of 2013 has worsened significantly, deaths have remained stable while births have fallen by 5%. Extrapolating these trends for the whole year gives a birth rate of 10.8/1000 and a death rate of 14.5/1000 resulting in a natural decrease of -3.7/100 or 170,000 in numerical terms, worse than the natural decreases seen in 2012 or 2011.
  9. AKarlin

    AKarlin Generalissimo Staff Member

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    Yes, that's right.

    To be fair, the influx of ethnic Russians returning home was a mostly 1990s thing; it was petering down by the end of the decade. Many of the Russians now left in places like Central Asia are old or too settled there, and will never return.

    Today's immigrang groups are dominated by (non-Slavic) Central Asians and Caucasians.
  10. Joshua

    Joshua Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    "To be fair, the influx of ethnic Russians returning home was a mostly 1990s thing; it was petering down by the end of the decade. Many of the Russians now left in places like Central Asia are old or too settled there, and will never return.

    Today's immigrang groups are dominated by (non-Slavic) Central Asians and Caucasians."

    Not necessarily Russian statistical organizations classify the immigrants based on their ethnicity, although the information is published only up to 2007. In that year, the net immigration was 190,397 (plus another 49,546 for which ethnicity was unknown). Of this, 97,813 was Slavic / Germanic / Finnic (51.4%, of which Russian - 72,769, Ukrainian - 17,802), Turkic and other Muslim - 52,536 (27.6%, of which Azeri - 14,084, Tatar - 10,391, Uzbek - 10,517, Tajik - 9,032, Kyrgyz - 7,533 & Kazakh - (-)1,424) and Others - 40,048 (21.0%, of which Armenian - 25,719).[68]
  11. Kid_A

    Kid_A Dead Soul

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    I think that in last 2 months there is improvment in Ukraine fertility rate and it will go probably to 11,0/1,000 births and 14,5/1,000 deaths which is little decrease from 2012, but still better . Do you know what is the situation now in Ukraine with fertility rate and born number of born children?

    Their economy show sigh of improvment in 2013 with growth of almost 3%.
  12. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    Well, the drop of 5% in the number of births in the first five months has been continued through for seven months now according to the latest data so a birth rate of 10.8/1000 is looking like the most likely figure for the whole of 2013 while the death rate will likely decline to perhaps 14.4/1000, resulting in a natural decline of -3.6/1000, worse than what was seen in 2012 or even 2011.


    As for growth of 3%, I do not know where you are getting that figure from, Ukraine is in a deep economic recession with GDP contracting by -1.3% in the 2nd quarter of this year, what makes it even worse is that Ukraine is already among the poorest nations in Europe and is only falling behind further and further with each passing year of dysfunctional government.
  13. Kid_A

    Kid_A Dead Soul

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    Oh, sorry, it was my mistake about GDP. Ukraine will have 3% GDP growth in 2014 and in 2013 they dont have -1,3% GDP.
    http://www.rbinternational.com/eBus...0030434411352-921906647157708393-NA-1-NA.html

    Ukraine economy will grown in 2014 and the economy situation is much better than it was in previous decade. Last 12 years Ukraine have one of the fastest economic growth in world except 2009 when there was recession. The unemployment drop down this year.

    I know that the demographic situation in Ukraine is not perfect, but is much better than in the decade before. The death rate probably will be better than 2012, but birth rate probably will be little worse than 2012, but still good.
    It is not possible every year a country have more babies than the previous year. The number of infants will vary and it is normal especially for countries like Ukraine, which lost much of its young reproductive population. Probably they will have better birth rate in 2014, because the economy will stabilaze and grown.

    Like you see and Russia didnt have same birth rate and number of births like it has in 2012, but probably will have better birth rate and increase the number of babies in 2014.

    Demographics and economics are such that branches will always vary and there is no constancy. It is important to maintain the normal limit.

    Generall Eastern Europe or Slavic countries have much better birth rate and population growth than Western countries. The main problem is immigration. From Ukraine last 22 years immigrated almost 6 millions Ukranians mostly young productive population and mostly in Western Europe and North America. The same story goes to Russia. You must consider that many babies are born out from Ukraine which have two or one parents from Ukraine. Western Europe is full with Russians, Ukranians, Polish, Czech.... I was in London this year and in London you have almost 1 milion Polish immigrants living there.
  14. Vostok

    Vostok Gubernial Secretary (12th class)

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    Not many Russians moving abroad anymore though. I think it is around 30,000 left Russia in 2012. Whereas around 70,000 people moved from the Ukraine to Russia last year.

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