New economic model in Russia?

Discussion in 'The Russian Economy' started by AlexBond, May 7, 2013.

  1. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    It is likely that the Russian economy will only expand 1.3 -1.4% in 2013 after growing by 3.4% in 2012. I must say I did not expect economic growth to decelerate so sharply and virtually converge with developed nation levels of economic expansion. It is likely that the Russian economy will only expand by 2 - 2.5% this year, fast enough to keep up with the rest but 2 - 2.5% per capita growth rates will not allow for Russia to catch up with the west. It's GDP per capita although closer to western Europe than it has ever been is still only around 65% of French and UK levels and it will take decades for Russia to converge unless there is an acceleration to growth in excess of 3% within the next few years.
  2. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    Industrial production seems to have grown 0.8% in December, this is the strongest growth since March of 2013, it remains to be seen whether this is a blip or points to an underlying strengthening of growth dynamics in the Russian economy.

    http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/B04_03/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d03/8.htm
  3. José Moreira

    José Moreira High Commissar Staff Member

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    A new article by Jacques Sapir:

    World economic trends and Russia

    Some quotes:

  4. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    Putin in the latest St Petersburg Economic Forum (SPIEF) outlined some interesting ideas that he plans to implement in the upcoming years, I have outlined some of them below:

    1. Establishment of special fund for Russian industry to stimulate its development.
    2. Creation of loan system where business can obtain loans at inflation rate plus 1%.
    3. He also talked about import substitution, that is making Russian industry produce more goods.
    4. In addition he outlined the goal of increasing non - oil and gas exports by 6% per annum.

    Also to note, industrial output, especially manufacturing has been growing very strongly in Russia since the start of the year, it has expanded by 1.4% in the first four months although it is important to note that the 3.3% contraction in utilities has brought down the index. Manufacturing has expanded by 2.8%, its strangest growth since 2012.
  5. Morgoth

    Morgoth Office Registrar (13th class)

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    The recovery in manufacturing continued in May with it expanding by 4.4%, the best performance so far this year, for the the first 5 months of the year, manufacturing has expanded by 3.2% vs a contraction of 1.1% in the first 5 months of last year. It seem that the Ruble devaluation has had positive impacts and that the fears of sanctions impacting business have proven to be groundless.

    In addition, I would like to share a story which the western media so caught up in their characterization of Russia as Saudia Arabia V2.0 have barely reported. Russian refineries are beginning to pose serious competition to European ones with Russian refinery output of diesel fuels rising to 0.5 million barrel a day (mb/d) in 2013, double 2012 levels and expected to reach 1.1 mb/d by 2016. The lack of investment undertaken by European refineries is really beginning to show.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/174244...ttp://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/#axzz34ljg3La7

    Also it seems that Russia's oil peak which is supposedly nigh, in any case it has claimed to night for at least 5 years now will be delayed another year with Russian oil output rising by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2014.

    http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b04_03/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d03/100.htm
    José Moreira likes this.

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