Heritage Foundation - Implosion: The End of Russia and What It Means for America

Discussion in 'International Politics' started by john smith, May 2, 2014.

  1. john smith

    john smith Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    Haven't watched it yet but it has been a theme of western pundits and even some Russian commentators including Putin or Russian fragmenting.

  2. Carlo

    Carlo Ship Secretary (11th class)

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    I tend to consider all these forecasts of Russian fragmentation as wishful thinking on the part of Western analysts. Russia is not going through its better economical times; but comparing to what the country suffered in the 90's, the progress is huge. The GDP is not growing and there is a capital outflow (most probably caused on purpose as a punishment for Crimea, like it happened after the 2008 South Ossetian war); but all other economical indicators (public debt and expenses per GDP, inflation, international reserves) are very healthy.
  3. john smith

    john smith Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    Yes I usually dismiss such talk but this presentation that I just watched and the points raised were actually pretty good although I think he is overstating issues of Muslim militant threat and some of the issues of demographics but he does make good points on other issues like:

    - Academic and overall institutional corruption
    - Long term demographic challenges
    - Something I have talked about for years to fall on death ears with Russian bloggers is the Muslim threat supported from abroad although I would expand that to the whole of Eurasia not just Russia
    - Russians willing to actually leave Russia and those abroad with skills willing to come back
    - The real situation in Russia and Russia's popularity
    - Putin's personality cult and government
    - Russian geopolitical and domestic policies/situation among other things
  4. PCO VolgaTrader

    PCO VolgaTrader Collegiate Registrar (14th class)

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    Russia ought to split. It is plagued by a resource economy. An independent Siberia could live off resources revenues which can only be spent on imports or invested abroad (saving them is a temporary option). European Russia would then have a more realistic exchange rate which would stimulate local production. The reduced consumption would be politically unpopular - see Greece which voted to stay in the Euro.
  5. NukeCEO

    NukeCEO Citizen

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    I'm going to counter this in the context that, while a split could easily happen one day (in, perhaps, 2050-2070 -- After America or "the West" loses the Second Cold War), it's not something Russia really needs to worry about. These challenges are already progressing (for the most part) or are not as bad as the problems in Western counterpart countries (particularly the US, but also within the EU).
    -Institutional corruption in Russia is not as bad as "No Child Left Behind".
    -Russian population may be declining, mostly due to bad economic times of the 90s -- but this is slowly being resolved by both confrontation with the West (end brain drain, restore popular morale, etc.) and economic improvement. That said, having an increasing population due to massive waves of mostly-unlawful migration is worse than just having people move out.
    (Note on Video: He skews statistics. The Russian divorce:marriage ratio is lower than America's -- but there are also more marriages. Using a crude rate, however, it seems divorce is indeed most prolific in Russia. By subtracting divorce rate (as he used) from marriage rate to get a "real marriage rate", Russia does much better than the West -- 4.4 VS 3.2 (USA -- 44 reporting states, likely those with the best stats overall), 1.2 (Belgium), 2.3 (UK), 3.1 (AUS), 2.3 (Canada), 2.5 (whole EU), 2.7 (Norway). The only Western country I could find that seemed to be doing better than Russia was Israel -- 4.7. Some of the worst "failed states" (BiH, etc.) are doing quite well with this part, though, so let's move on to something more pressing.)
    -I'm not an expert on this, and I'm not going to rely on an American DoD agent (intro, if no one noticed -- He's DIA.) who just abused crude rates to screw with demographics to hammer "Russia has a Muslim problem." -- That said, I'll gladly listen to you, John Smith. Mostly because then I have someone with whom I can actually hold a discussion on a forum.
    -I believe that, as the American Empire continues to decline, and as Cold War Two advances, American propaganda machines will not suffice alone. They rely too strongly on foreign workers from BRICS, and will outlaw their departure if necessary. Therefore, it is not so much an issue of Russians rebuilding the population as it is a race to restore prestige to Russia (keep people, regain some) and subsequently go on the offensive and force America to forbid people leaving (which many pundits, such as Rush Limbaugh, have said will likely need to happen in the future due to the decline of the American workforce).
    -I have confidence that "Putin's personality cult" is just a brand he uses to win elections. It's not a religion, like we saw in Stalin and still see today in the Kim Dynasty. Instead, he ingeniously applied the virtues of businesses operating in Capitalism to his electoral campaigns, making a brand for himself and to a lesser extent his political party. Putin, as a brand, is very popular; Putin, as a person, could just be like an ordinary President.

    As for China taking the Far East, etc. -- These are likely to become concerns at the height of Cold War Two, so I don't see Russia losing territory to foreign powers.

    Russia ought to stay unified. It is gifted by resources. An unseparated Siberia could support itself and the growing technology (currently the core focus, as others shall follow), design, artistic (particularly as Putin will likely increase cultural exports going forward), and manufacturing sectors of the whole of Russia while simultaneously powering Russia into the future by allowing it to maintain energy independence -- a thing no Western power really has, at the moment, if only due to Environmentalist pressures.

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